which has brought Beijing and the Taliban together as both prepare for an Afghanistan without the presence of US troops. China has faced flak for its treatment of its ethnic Muslims while the Taliban appears unwilling to settle for anything less than a return to a strict Islamist regime in Afghanistan. So, why are the two sides playing ball, and where does that put India?
What Can The Taliban Do For China?
A volunteer group of ragtag fighters sending the mighty US packing would be welcome news for Beijing, which regards Washington as the biggest hurdle to its global power ambitions. But there is much about the Taliban that would make China uncomfortable. First, there is its restive Xinjiang province — where it is reportedly holding more than 1 million Muslims in internment camps — which shares a slender border with Afghanistan. China fears that militants can use Afghan territory as a base to foment trouble on its soil.
Then there is Beijing’s big power ambitions, the centrepiece of which is the Belt and Road Initiative, which relies on massive communication and infrastructure projects passing through Central Asia. An Afghanistan convulsed by fighting will not be conducive to its plans to expand its influence in the region.
The solution to both, for Beijing, is a friendly government in Kabul. But as the US goes ahead with the withdrawal of its troops, the Taliban has increasingly threatened to overrun the country and has already recaptured vast swathes of the country from government forces. It is at such a juncture that China hosted a delegation led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a Taliban co-founder, in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the “Taliban are a pivotal military and political force in Afghanistan and are expected to play an important role in the process of peace, reconciliation and reconstruction” of the country. A process that China would be looking to be a part of with an eye on its goals for regional influence.
Further, the Chinese Foreign Minister said that Beijing hopes the Taliban will “deal resolutely” with the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which China sees as having a hand in driving trouble in Xinjiang province. [The] delegation assured China that they will not allow anyone to use Afghan soil against China,” a Taliban spokesman said after the Tianjin meet.
What Can China Do For The Taliban?
But it is not all one-way traffic when it comes to Beijing’s engagement with Taliban. As it firms up its hold on Afghanistan and drives a hard bargain at negotiations with the democratically elected government in Kabul led by Ashraf Ghani, the Islamist group is already looking to a future where international legitimacy and assistance would be key for it to accomplish the task of reconstruction in Afghanistan.
The government in Kabul doubtless has the same goals for the country, but with Taliban seeing it as a western imposition backed by the US, experts fear that the prospects of a political solution to the Afghan problem are bleak. To that extent, China has already said that it is happy to let the Afghan people sort out their internal matters and wants only to extend the help that they seek from it.
“China also reiterated its commitment of continuation of their assistance with Afghans and said they will not interfere in Afghanistan’s issues but will help to solve the problems and restoration of peace in the country,” the Taliban spokesman said.
A major takeaway for the Taliban from its meeting with China’s foreign minister is the optics of a what is widely regarded as a pariah group being hosted by one of the biggest global powers. While the US was finally forced to come to the talks table with the Taliban, the western world may still retain a deep discomfort of the Islamists and their commitment to ideals of rights and democracy, which may not, however, be big considerations that come in the way of Beijing’s engagement with the Taliban.
What The US Has Said?
While every American President since George W Bush — who had sent in troops following the September 11, 2001, strikes to decimate terror bases on Afghan soil — had said they were committed to ending the US occupation, it was under Joe Biden that Washington finally decided to bring back its troops even if it meant leaving Afghanistan in much the same precarious state as it was when the first US soldiers had landed.
Biden said in July that the US had achieved its objectives in Afghanistan and that it “did not go to Afghanistan to nation build”. But he did note that “the likelihood there’s going to be one unified government in Afghanistan controlling the whole country is highly unlikely”. But Washington has stressed that it is not completely abandoning the Kabul government to its own fate.
Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, head of the US Central Command, aid in Kabul late last month that “Taliban victory is not inevitable” and that the US will continue providing logistical support to the Afghan Air Force even after all its troops have left the country, CNN reported. Only, that support would be not on the ground but would come from its bases outside Afghanistan.
Responding to China’s engagement with the Taliban, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it was a “a positive thing” although he said that would depend on whether China was seeking a “peaceful resolution of the conflict” and a “truly representative and inclusive” government.
After its meeting with the Taliban, China though criticised US’ actions in Afghanistan, saying that “the hasty withdrawal of the United States and NATO troops from Afghanistan actually marked the failure of the US policy towards Afghanistan”.
What It Means For India?
The Taliban delegation’s China visit happened on the same day that Blinken had travelled to India. New Delhi shares the US’ vision for the future of Afghanistan, which means that it will be wary of Taliban seizing control if the country. A democratic regime that respects women’s rights and cracks down on terror groups would be the best-case scenario for India but the Taliban’s resurgence can put paid to such hopes.
“No one has an interest in a military takeover of the country by the Taliban, the restoration of an Islamic emirate,” Blinken said in New Delhi, but with US seemingly distancing itself and China now jumping into the picture, India might find itself caught on the wrong foot in Afghanistan and find itself out of the any future equation that develops in the country.
A report said “if the Taliban do topple the US-backed central government (in Kabul), China could gain a strategic corridor allowing it and long-time ally Pakistan to bring further pressure against common rival India”.
