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'Sharif may not survive 2024, Munir could be...': Expert's warning as tension soars in Pakistan Featured

  25 November 2024

Pakistan stands on the brink of chaos as tensions rise over the incarceration of former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

Supporters of Khan, leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), are marching towards Islamabad in defiance of heavy security measures, internet shutdowns, and roadblocks imposed by authorities. Khan's imprisonment has deepened divisions between Pakistan's civil society and military, sparking fears of a potential civil war.

As tension grips Islamabad, Indian security expert Sushant Sareen suggested that things can go really out of hand and there may be a regime change. "Don't be surprised if Shahbaz Sharif doesn't survive 2024; don’t be surprised if Asim Munir is ousted in a Putsch by his own army,” Sareen tweeted on Monday. "Imran Khan (like him or hate him) has proved his power sitting in prison. The only way to deal with him is to either bump him off and risk civil war or give him power and risk civil war/implosion/isolation."  

and risk civil war or give him power and risk civil war/implosion/isolation."  

 
'Sharif may not survive 2024, Munir could be...': Expert's warning as tension soars in Pakistan

In a tweet on Friday, Sareen said the most powerful man in Pakistan today is not the Army chief or the man who pretends to be Prime Minister. "It is Imran Khan who sitting in jail scares the pants of the Army and what goes for government, so much so that one call for a protest and there is so much panic that the entire capital shuts down, internet is blocked, virtual martial law is declared, peoples houses are raided and vandalised, hundreds are arrested and beaten up, students are threatened with expulsions, billions of rupees are spent in defending Islamabad from an invading army which apparently doesn't exist. What an amazing country. #ThankYouJinnah"

The PTI has called on the public to join the march to "break the shackles of slavery". Led by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and Khan's wife, Bushra Bibi, a convoy departed from Peshawar on Sunday, determined to reach Islamabad despite obstacles. Highways have been blocked with shipping containers, and Section 144, a colonial-era law banning public gatherings, has been enforced as authorities attempt to prevent the march.  

The convoy paused overnight in Haro in Attock district of Punjab, before resuming its journey towards the capital on Sunday. Protesters used heavy machinery to remove barriers. Chief Minister Gandapur urged the crowd to press forward, declaring, "We must advance and not turn back until Imran Khan is released."  

Interior Minister Naqvi vowed to arrest anyone attempting to enter Islamabad to protest. Security measures have intensified, with barricades erected on all major roads and the deployment of police and paramilitary forces. Meanwhile, KP government spokesperson Muhammad Ali Saif warned that the government could face a scenario similar to Bangladesh's, where protests led to the fall of then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Imran Khan, who was removed from office in 2022 via a no-confidence vote, has faced over 200 legal cases. He remains imprisoned in Adiala Jail, despite securing bail in some cases and convictions in others. His party performed strongly in February's general elections, winning the most seats despite running as independents after being denied their election symbol. Khan has accused the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and its coalition partners, including the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), of stealing the mandate.  

The fresh standoff between the authorities and Imran Khan's supporters threatens to plunge Pakistan deeper into turmoil.

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