Since her release, Zia, now 76, has refrained from making any political moves. Any attempt to re-enter politics would mean a return to jail.BNP acting chief Rahman – who was sentenced to life imprisonment over a 2004 assassination attempt on Hasina – has been leading a fugitive life in London for more than a decade now. Other prominent party members are either abroad or facing jail sentences for corruption or extremism.

In 2014, BNP activists carried out systematic bombings on religious minorities, resulting in the worst election violence to date.The party’s dismal performance in the 2018 elections proved that its leaders had lost both support and sympathy. But this time around, BNP’s remaining leadership appears divided over its poll strategy, and even over whether it will contest the polls.

Bereft of leadership, the party was unable to position itself in leading movements like the 2013 Shahbag protests, which demanded a death sentence for Jamaat-e-Islami leader Abdul Quader Mollah or the Hefazat-e-Islam’s counter-protest movement, which reflected the politics of religious fundamentalism in the country.

While the BNP failed to display any electoral expediency, the Awami League drew support from the Hefazat-e-Islam, an organisation of radical clerics from Qawmi madrasas, by allowing a few concessions.In 2018, the Hefazat conferred Hasina with the epithet ‘Mother of the Qawmi’ for allowing the recognition of degrees from the Qawmi madrassas. However, the secular Awami League could not continue this alliance of convenience and has since taken a tough stance against the Hefazat leaders.

The death of its amirs, Ahmad Shafi and Junaid Babunagari, will impact the ability of this hardline group to sway the radical madrassa voters as it did in the previous election.Bereft of leadership, the party was unable to position itself in leading movements like the 2013 Shahbag protests, which demanded a death sentence for Jamaat-e-Islami leader Abdul Quader Mollah or the Hefazat-e-Islam’s counter-protest movement, which reflected the politics of religious fundamentalism in the country.

While the BNP failed to display any electoral expediency, the Awami League drew support from the Hefazat-e-Islam, an organisation of radical clerics from Qawmi madrasas, by allowing a few concessions.

In 2018, the Hefazat conferred Hasina with the epithet ‘Mother of the Qawmi’ for allowing the recognition of degrees from the Qawmi madrassas. However, the secular Awami League could not continue this alliance of convenience and has since taken a tough stance against the Hefazat leaders.

The death of its amirs, Ahmad Shafi and Junaid Babunagari, will impact the ability of this hardline group to sway the radical madrassa voters as it did in the previous election.

Khaleda Zia, former Prime Minister of Bangladesh and the chief of main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party, arrives in court to seek bail in Dhaka, Bangladesh, August 10, 2016. 

When the BNP completed its tenure in 2006, violent disagreements over the composition of the caretaker government between the two major political parties led to a volatile situation. The January 2007 elections had to be cancelled, and former President Iajuddin Ahmed declared a state of emergency. The caretaker government itself was accused of abuse of power and partisan politics.

The Awami League government has reasoned that in the previous elections, a caretaker government was needed because the Election Commission (EC) never had a legal basis in Bangladesh. But in January 2022, the country passed a new law legalising the formation of the EC. Under the law, a committee was formed for the appointment of the chief election commissioner (CEC) and election commissioners.

The new law was introduced at a time when the election credibility in Bangladesh was under question.Moreover, the arbitrary appointment of CECs and election commissioners had cast doubts on the fairness of elections in Bangladesh. There were allegations that election laws were being interpreted differently by different commissioners.

Former defence secretary, Kazi Habibul Awal, is the new CEC.

In the past, Bangladesh has accused Pakistan of interference in its domestic affairs. With Jamaat and its radical student wing, the Islamic Chhatra Shibir, trying to register as new proxies, the EC must take extra care in scrutinising the documents.

As electioneering heats up, there are fears that the BNP and Jamaat will combine to launch a campaign of massive street violence similar to the 2014 polls. In the absence of defining leadership, a lack of a definitive political direction, and inadequate public support, the best the BNP can hope for is a breakdown of law and order, an effort at tarnishing the election process.

Hasina’s campaign

Hasina’s critics have accused her of authoritarianism. There are also concerns over arbitrary arrests and harassment of opposition groups. But what works for her is the transformative change that the Awami League government has brought to the country, exhibiting a commitment for long-term development.

Additionally, Bangladesh’s economy has performed remarkably. Surveys by the US-based International Republican Institute (IRI) indicate that Hasina’s government is popular but there are increasing concerns about corruption. 

The possibility of anti-incumbency that the Awami League might face will be offset by the lack of support the BNP has because of poll violence it had unleashed in the past. 

Having cleverly balanced relations with India and China, Hasina’s re-election as prime minister suits Bangladesh’s two largest investment partners. If it acts upon the allegations of corruption and high-handedness, with the structural reforms and its commitment to long-term economic development, the Awami League is the only real contender in Bangladesh’s next general elections.

• Category Title